The demographic turn.
In 1960, five countries on Earth had fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. Today it is — of — countries — and weighted by population, about two-thirds of humanity now lives in a country below replacement. This report reads the World Bank's full fertility record — every country, every year since 1960 — and draws the quietest large-scale change of the modern era: not a wave, a turn. Every figure is computed from the record at render time.
published 2026-08-27 · data cutoff 2023 (latest World Bank year) · edition 1 — updated only by a new dated edition · source: World Bank SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
Every country, falling through one line.
All — countries' fertility paths since 1960, drawn thin, with the 2.1 replacement line bold across the middle. The field starts high and wide — sixes and sevens everywhere — and pours downward across sixty years. The countries still above the line today are drawn warm; the ones below, cool. The world's giants are named.
Five countries, then a hundred seventeen.
The number of countries below replacement, year by year. The count climbs through every decade and never falls back — 5 in 1960, 42 by 1980, 80 by 2000, — today. Weighted by today's population, the countries now below the line hold of humanity — the weighting is 2023's and the method says so.
From seven to under two, in one lifetime.
The steepest falls in the record are not where the story usually looks. Iran fell from 7.5 births per woman in 1960 to 1.7 today — Kuwait, Brunei, Costa Rica and Bahrain made the same journey. Below them, the deepest floor in the record: South Korea at —, where each generation at current rates is roughly a third the size of its parents'.
Where every number comes from.
One indicator, all countries. Total fertility rate (births per woman), World Bank series SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, fetched 2026-08-27 for every listed economy, 1960–2023. Regional aggregates are excluded — only real countries and territories are counted, — of them with data.
The 2.1 line. Replacement-level fertility is a convention (roughly 2.1 for low-mortality populations; higher where child mortality is high). This report uses the standard 2.1 everywhere and says so — the count would shift slightly under country-specific thresholds.
Population weighting. The "share of humanity" figure uses 2023 populations (World Bank SP.POP.TOTL) against 2023 fertility — a same-year computation. Historical shares are NOT drawn, because historical weights are a dataset this edition does not carry; the year-by-year exhibit counts countries instead.
What this page does not do. No projections, no cohort modeling, no causes. The record's own arithmetic — counts, crossings, slopes — is the entire method.
Four things the record shows.
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