GRIDINT Research · Conflict

The arsenal.

For eighty years humanity has counted its own nuclear stockpile, and the count tells a story with a shape: a climb to 70,374 warheads in 1986, a long fall to 12,187 today — and, in the newest years of the record, the fall has stopped. This report draws the whole ledger: every state's stockpile since 1945 as the analysts publish it, all 2,056 nuclear tests — 178 of them in 1962 alone — and the roll of the nine, which carries one entry unlike the others: South Africa built the bomb, then walked away, and remains the only state ever to do so. The treaty dates stand on the axis as dates; what they caused, the reader may judge. Every figure is computed from the records at render time.

THE STOCKPILE

The mountain, and where we stand on it.

The world total, with every state's line beneath it. The 1986 peak is the mountain's summit; the long descent spans the treaty era; and the right-hand edge is the part the record is newest about — the descent has flattened, and some lines have turned up. Treaty milestones stand as dated verticals, named and nothing more.

A1Nuclear warheads by state, 1945–2026 — with the treaty dates on the axis
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Stockpile estimates as the Federation of American Scientists publishes them — estimates, and labeled so. The world line leads; states color beneath it. The world line runs above the states' sum by design — the source's world row includes retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, while the state rows are military stockpiles; the gap (2,442 today) is the source's definition, stated here so no reader has to discover it by adding. The dashed verticals are treaty dates from a curated table; this page claims no effect for them beyond their position. Tap or hover any line.
sourceFAS (Kristensen/Korda et al.) via OWID · retrieved 2026-08-29 methodestimates drawn as published · the treaty table is curated dates, each a named public treaty
THE TESTS

2,056 detonations, and then near-silence.

Every nuclear test on record, year by year, colored by state. 1962 stands tallest in this ledger — 178 detonations in one year, one every other day — and after 1996 the chart falls almost silent, broken only by South Asia's 1998 pair and North Korea's six. Each year's total is computed by this page as the sum of the eight testing states — the source publishes no world row.

B1Nuclear tests per year, 1945–2024 — stacked by state
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Stacked bars, one color per testing state; each year's total is this page's own sum of the eight testing states — the source publishes no world row. The dashed vertical at 1996 is the CTBT opening for signature — a date, not a claim. Tap or hover any year for its count and cast.
sourceOWID nuclear-tests series · per state, per year methodthe world total is COMPUTED here as the sum of the eight testing states — stated, because the source publishes no world row
THE NINE

The roll — and the one who left.

Nine states hold the bomb today. Two of every three warheads on Earth sit in just two arsenals — 66% of the world line, 83% of what the nine declare between them. And beneath the nine stands a tenth line at zero: South Africa, which built six devices, dismantled every one before 1994, and joined the treaty as a non-weapon state. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up inherited weapons; South Africa remains the only state that built the bomb and then unmade it.

C1Stockpiles today, ranked — with the walk-away drawn at its true value
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Latest FAS estimate per state, ranked. South Africa's zero is drawn AS a bar of zero with its label — absence made visible, because in this ledger a zero earned is the rarest number on the page. Tap or hover any bar.
sourceFAS via OWID · latest year per state methodestimates as published · Israel's figure is the analysts' estimate for an undeclared program, and carries that caveat in its tooltip
METHOD

Counting the uncountable, honestly.

Estimates, and labeled so. No state publishes an audited warhead count. The stockpile figures are the Federation of American Scientists' published estimates — the standard scholarly series — drawn exactly as published via Our World in Data. Where a program is undeclared (Israel), the figure is the analysts' estimate of it and the exhibit says so.

What this page computes and what it refuses. The tests-per-year world total is computed here as the sum of the eight testing states, because the source publishes no world row — stated on the exhibit. The treaty verticals are a curated table of eight milestone dates; this page draws them at their positions and claims no causal effect — the reader can see what the lines did next to them. No yield estimates, no casualty modeling, no scenario of any kind appears on this page.

Why it is on this site. The arsenal is the grid's oldest tail risk and its first instrument-watched one — the same satellites and seismometers this site reads elsewhere were built, in part, to watch this ledger.

sourcefas.org via ourworldindata.org · both series retrieved 2026-08-29
FINDINGS

Three things the ledger shows.

1The fall has stopped. From 70,374 warheads to 12,187 in forty years — and the newest years of the record show the descent flattening, with lines turning up. → the stockpile, A1
21962: one detonation every other day. 178 detonations in twelve months — one every other day — the year before the Partial Test Ban. After 1996, the ledger falls nearly silent. → the tests, B1
3Exactly one state has ever walked away. South Africa built six, dismantled six, and left. In eighty years of this ledger, its zero is the only one anyone earned. → the nine, C1
A GRIDINT RESEARCH REPORT · CONFLICT · AUTHORED FROM OFFICIAL RECORDS · RENDERED BY THE GRIDINT BUILDER
published 2026-08-29 · edition 1 — updated only by a new dated edition