GRIDINT Research · AI Economics

The circular machine.

Chip makers invest in labs; labs commit the money back to clouds; clouds spend it on the chip makers. Everyone has heard the story — this report draws it as a network, with a receipt class on every edge. And the first honest finding is about the receipts themselves: of the twenty-one relationships in this machine, NOT ONE carries a value from a filing. The biggest numbers in tech are announcements.

THE MACHINE

Every relationship, classed.

Thirteen companies, twenty-one claimed money relationships. Edge color is the receipt class; node color is the company's role in the loop — chip makers, labs, hyperscalers, infrastructure. The chips filter by class; the slider hides edges below a dollar threshold. Turn everything off except "stated, no figure" and more than half the machine remains — that is the finding.

A1The AI money loop — a curated network, receipt class on every edge
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Each node is a company; each arrow a claimed money relationship, pointing from payer to receiver. Amber figures are press-reported; pink are announced multi-year CEILINGS, not spend; gray dashed hairlines are relationships stated with no public figure at all. There is no green on this page: not one edge value traces to a filing. Values of $10B and up print on the edge. Tap or hover anything for its receipt.
SHOW EDGES ≥ $0B (no-figure edges follow their chip, not the slider)
sourcecurated from public statements + press, per edge · classes printed in B1 and D1 methodsolid only if filed — none are · value null ≠ 0 · arrows point payer → receiver
THE RECEIPTS

What the claims stand on.

Twenty-one edges, graded. Zero carry a filed value. Nine ride press reporting, three are announced ceilings — and twelve have no public figure at all. The public story of the AI money loop is mostly told in numbers nobody has signed.

B1Edges by receipt class — count and stated dollars
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT One row per class: the bar is the number of relationships in it; the mono line beneath carries the stated dollars where any exist. The filed row is empty by finding, not by omission.
sourceclass per edge, printed on the ledger, D1 methodceilings are multi-year announced maxima — never summed with spend
WHO CLAIMS WHAT

The loop, company by company.

Stated dollars flowing OUT of each company against stated dollars flowing IN — only where a figure exists, colored by role. The labs sit at the center of the stated money; the chip maker sits at the end of nearly every arrow.

C1Stated dollars out and in, per company — valued edges only
WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Paired bars per company: OUT is money it is claimed to be paying; IN is money claimed to be coming to it. Companies whose every edge is unvalued are listed beneath — in the loop, but not in any number.

sourcesame edges · sums of stated figures only methodceilings marked † and summed separately — a ceiling is not spend
THE LEDGER

All twenty-one, every field.

The record behind the picture — payer, receiver, the stated figure or its honest absence, and the class. Deliberately the last view: a table is the record, not the story.

D1The complete edge ledger — edition 1
sourcecurated 2026-08-27 from public reporting · class per edge · values as reported at curation date
METHOD

How this was curated, and what it cannot say.

Every edge in this network is a claimed money relationship between two named companies in the AI build-out, curated one at a time from public statements. Each edge carries a source class, and the class is the finding: an edge is drawn solid only when its dollar figure appears in a securities filing; press-reported figures draw as lighter lines; a relationship the companies have stated but never priced draws as a dotted hairline labeled "stated, no figure."

We read filings first — 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and 8-Ks on SEC EDGAR — then reputable press for the figures companies announce but never file. Where a filed number corroborates the scale of a relationship without pricing the specific counterparty (Microsoft's capital expenditure, for example, corroborates but does not itemize its Nvidia purchases), the edge stays in its honest class: the split is not filed, so the line does not draw solid.

Values are in billions of US dollars as most recently claimed; null means no public figure exists, and null is never rendered as zero scale. We provide no data of our own — every edge traces to a receipt a reader can pull, and the receipt class is printed on the exhibit. The dataset is a curated edition, timestamped below; it changes only by a new dated edition.

What this Report does not establish: that any announced figure will be spent; that money is circular in the accounting sense; or that any of it is imprudent. It establishes exactly one thing, with receipts: what has been claimed, by whom, on what class of evidence — and that the biggest numbers in tech are, today, announcements.
What this means for a reader: For readers of AI-economics coverage, the practical rule this machine teaches: when a number about these companies appears without a class, assume announcement until shown a filing. For the industry story, the circularity is neither scandal nor illusion by itself — vendor financing built the railroads and the telecoms too — but its scale here is carried almost entirely on unfiled numbers, and that is precisely the condition in which both booms and busts get misread. This report will re-cut as editions when terms become filings.
FINDINGS

Four things the machine shows.

1Not one dollar figure in this machine comes from a filing. Capex filings corroborate the SCALE of spending, but no counterparty split is ever filed — every specific number here is press-reported, and the network's line styles say so before the reader asks. → the receipts, B1
2More than half the machine has no number at all. Twelve of twenty-one relationships — including most of the return legs that make the loop a loop — are publicly acknowledged but financially undisclosed. They draw as dotted hairlines: present, real, unpriced. → the machine, A1
3The headline figures are ceilings, staged and conditional. Nvidia→OpenAI ($100B, staged with buildout), OpenAI→Oracle ($300B, multi-year), SoftBank→OpenAI (round terms staged) — announcements of intent whose full values depend on futures that have not happened. → the machine, A1
4Suppliers invest in their customers, and customers commit revenue to their suppliers — the same names appear on both ends of multiple edges (Nvidia↔CoreWeave, Nvidia↔xAI, Microsoft↔OpenAI). That is the circularity itself, visible as reciprocal arcs. → who claims what, C1
A GRIDINT RESEARCH REPORT · AI ECONOMICS · AUTHORED FROM PUBLIC STATEMENTS, CLASSED · RENDERED BY THE GRIDINT BUILDER
published 2026-08-27 · data cutoff 2026-08-27 · edition 1 — updated only by a new dated edition